For months the
Yemeni people have been waiting for a breakthrough in the country's political standoff.
Now that the Gulf Cooperation Initiative has been signed a new window of
opportunity has opened for Yemen. The signing of the initiative took months to
materialize and required intensive efforts to be brokered. Indeed it required an
approach that combined a carrot and stick policy by the international community, notably by the
Security Council and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Special tribute is
due to UN Secretary General‘s special envoy Gamal bin Omar who exhibited
patience, and perseverance as he shuttled forwards and backwards between the horn
locked parties. The US ambassador to Yemen also played an undeniably
influential role throughout the crisis in a relentless attempt to bring the two
sides closer and avoid the country from slipping into anarchy and chaos.
The agreement
itself, now common knowledge, effectively ends president Saleh's 33 year old rule
by giving him a 90-day period to decline and exit the political scene
gracefully. During this period he shall maintain a figure head status with no
executive powers. His powers shall be transferred to the current Vice President
AbduraboMansorHadi.
The initiative consists of a two-year transitional
period during which the PGC and the opposition will share power. Yemen
has experienced a transitional period following the Unification of country
between the Peoples General Congress and the Socialist Party. It was a period
of intense Pickering and rivalry that culminated in the civil war of 1994. This
historical fact adds a touch of pessimism. However, this is counterbalanced by
the fact that this agreement was brokered by regional and global powers that have
strong leverage on both sides of the equation.
The agreement
gives the Yemeni people something to look forward to and replaces the overly
bleak clouds of uncertainly that have hung over the country during the last
nine months.
No one
expects an easy ride as signs of discontent have already surfaced among the youths, who under the revolutionary
euphoria that have swept the region, want
nothing less than a decisive blow to the regime to match those dealt to the
regimes of Tunisia and Egypt. The youths have organized violent protests that coincided with
armed clashes between some tribes and government troops in a show of defiance.
How
will things shape up in the future will invariably depend on the intentions of
the competing factions; the PGC which has enjoyed inordinate power by virtue of
President Saleh's patronage, will have to come to terms with the new reality and
be prepared to compete with other parties on equal footing. The PGC will have
to start purging its corrupt elements and build sound and practical programs.
They also have to redefine their political agenda. If they however, persist on
their old ways and dwell on the past, they will have shock waves coming their
way. The PGC has the advantage of long political experience; seasoned politicians
in the likes of Dr. al-Eryani and Dr. al-Kirby also have the advantage of preaching
centrist policies which appeal to the West and GCC countries.
The Joint
meeting parties on the other hand have built a successful political front which
has largely remained intact due to sharing the common goal of deposing
president Saleh rather than to having strategic long term common goals. They
will have to re-engineer their alliance in a way that gives space and room for
each of the five parties that make up the Joint Meeting Parties.
In spite of
deep ideological differences between the Joint Meeting Parties, especially
between the Yemen Congregation for Islah and Yemeni Socialist Party, they have done
well when it comes to confrontation and counter media propaganda. However, they might find themselves more
comfortable being in the opposition. It wouldn't be totally unconceivable
either if both the PGC and joint meeting parties find their best interest in
dividing the stakes between them instead of competing in a genuine contention for
power at the end of the transition period.
The Youths
who have little or no political experience may become an unwanted burden by
their current allies due to their rigidity and unwavering stance. Their best
option, if they want to remain insulated from political seduction, is to embrace an independent and patriotic agenda
that is not aligned to any of the two main political blocks. They can proclaim
themselves guardians of the revolution and to serve as a watch dog for it,
ready to protect the interest of the masses if any party dares to breach the
spirit of democracy and general freedoms which have been the hallmark of the uprising.
The signing GCC
initiative is expected to usher in a new era, the donor community would do well
to kick start it by restoring aid
projects to Yemen and get the economic wheel to start turning again.
By Mohammed
Humaid
Economist/
Journalist
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