US expert stresses managed power transition and early election in Yemen

By Shuaib M. al-Mosawa

Source: Yemen Observer

The security presence in al-Qaeda stronghold receded to face the protest wave and now the Yemeni government is trying to “put the terrorism threat back in the box”. He said: “The government is being even more active than it was in the past, both for its own sake and due to international pressure. According to American officials, Yemeni cooperation on counterterrorism issues has greatly improved, said Christopher Boucek, an associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program.

In his research that focuses on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa, talked in a Q&A published October 27 by Carnegie about the Yemen security and political situation.

He said that Yemeni government has been more hands-on in combating the threat and the United States is relentless in its pursuit of well-known leaders

In reply to the question ‹ Will President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down soon? Would Saleh’s exit calm the political crisis?› Boucek said: «President Saleh is the single dominating force in Yemen and this is how he has governed for more than thirty years. The weeks of spiraling violence before he returned last month after receiving medical treatment in Saudi Arabia threatened to get much worse and there was no one else in the country who could pull the country back from the brink of wider fighting.»

For that reason, Boucek said there needs to be a transitional process. He said:» No matter what one’s opinion is of President Saleh, he is the legitimately elected president of Yemen.»

Boucek said an early election is the viable solution to move forward and that both the opposition and regime need to compromise. “Until that happens, there is little likelihood of progress.”

With a country filled with weapons and many competing factions, Boucek said, there needs to be a clear sense of what comes next. “Moreover, Yemen’s problems will not magically disappear once Saleh steps down. The situation is far more complicated than that.”

Boucek warned that Yemen›s economy has collapsed and that the government does not have the capacity to solve the problem, which Boucek thinks it leads to under-governed spaces and breeding grounds for terrorism. According to Boucek, the international community›s help in reducing corruption and creating jobs will do more to reduce the terrorist threat.

Boucek pointed the significance of the death of two key al-Qaeda members, the US-born cleric Anwar Al-Awlaki and Samir Khan. He said that Awlaki was a key member of an al-Qaeda oriented segment targeting the west. Boucek said that Khan, The web-savvy American who was killed in the US strike on Awlaki, was the brains behind the Qaeda magazine Inspire «which suffered a debilitating blow with the deaths of Awlaki and Khan”.

Awlaki›s death came days following the return of President Saleh to Yemen after three months of treating burns suffered by a June attack on his compound. President Saleh›s opponents had sought to prevent him from returning and thought his return was in exchange for giving information on the whereabouts of al-Awlaki. Boucek said: «Despite the coincidence in timing, with President Saleh returning to Yemen days before Awlaki’s death, the drone attack was not a quid pro quo... The American operation was months in the making, so the timeline doesn’t match. Yemen, however, clearly plays a role in U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the country. Yemenis have resisted going after several persons of interest to the United States for domestic political reasons, but this is now changing. «

Boucek said the US wants to see a managed process of the transition and that Yemenis need to make compromises and find a process that keeps tensions calm. He said: «The Yemeni government argues that a transition process needs to be lawful and legitimate—otherwise they say it would be a coup. No matter what you think about the Yemeni government, President Saleh is the legitimately elected leader. Simply throwing him out right now without any sort of plan for what would come next could make matters worse.»

US counterterrorism policies in Yemen using drone attacks are not the ultimate answer, Boucek said. While drones can be effective, he said: «The United States, however, can’t kill its way out of the problem and rely on a remote control to defeat terrorism. U.S. policies shouldn’t be all about counterterrorism…The three biggest things that the United States can do to help Yemen and reduce the threat of terrorism are increasing access to water for all Yemenis, helping fight corruption, and supporting land reform. None of these are sexy counterterrorism raids that grab headlines, but all of them will improve America’s relationship with Yemen—not just the government, but the people.»