Can Yemen crisis be internationalized more?

By Nasser Arrabyee

Yemen Observer

Two important things have significantly affected the 9-month long political crisis in Yemen this week.

The CIA most wanted Yemeni-American terrorist Anwar al-Awlaki was killed in Yemen by American Hellfire missiles in full and declared cooperation from the Yemeni government.

The second thing is that the UN Security Council might interfere to put more pressure on Yemeni conflicting parties to end the crisis.

After more than two weeks in Yemen, the UN envoy Jamal Bin Omar left Sana’a Monday October 3rd, for New York to brief the UN officials on the stalemate of Yemeni crisis.

Having met and listened to all parties, groups, and effective players, Bin Omar said that all parties should take responsibility for rescuing their country, and the solution would only come from among them not from outside.

The UN envoy could not convince the conflicting parties in Yemen to implement a plan he earlier suggested for “constitutional, orderly and peaceful” transfer of power from President Ali Abdullah Saleh according to a US-backed and Saudi-led gulf deal, the GCC Initiative.

The parties still did not agree on some small details on the implementation mechanism which should end up with electing a new president for Yemen by the end of this year.

So, immediately after Bin Omar left Yemen, diplomats and observers started to say that a resolution from UN Security Council should be taken on the basis of the GCC deal and its UN implementation mechanism.

The opposition talks happily about the possibility of having a resolution from Security Council  to obligate all parties, while the government keeps welcoming all regional and international efforts for a “constitutional and orderly” transfer of power.

The situation in the ground inside the capital Sana’a and other tribal places is in a seemingly controlled war between government forces and loyal tribesmen on one side, and opposition forces which include defected troops, President Saleh’s rivals in Ahmar’s family and other armed tribesmen who allegedly defend the anti-Saleh protesters, on the other hand.

Observers say if there is any resolution from UN Security Council, it should be balanced and in the direction of pressing all parties to end the crisis not in favor of a certain party.

Otherwise things will only be worse and worse in terms of insecurity, instability and sufferings of the people.

The interpretation of this special and unique case of Yemen is that the regime is divided into two groups who are now conflicting with each other over the power.

And what makes this special and unique case even more complicated is that one group of this regime wants to win what it called a “revolutionary legitimacy” after it hijacked the youth revolution, which wants Yemen to be free from the two groups.

The second group, however, (Saleh and his supporters) is adhering to the constitutional legitimacy.

The defected general Ali Muhsen and the tribal leaders, al-Ahmar’s sons, who were always the essential part of Saleh’s regime over the last 33 years, formed the group that is using the youth revolution to reproduce a tyrannical and backward regime not the civil state that the ambitious youth always demanded.

“So, the UNSC resolution, if any, should be obligating both sides and should be threatening both sides in case of refusal,” said Najeeb Ghallab, politics professor at Sana’a University.

“There is lack of confidence between the two conflicting groups, so there should be strong intervention to help them and rescue Yemen,”he added.

Assassination of al-Awlaki
The American officials kept saying President Saleh should also transfer power despite his cooperation for the killing of the most wanted terrorist Anwar Al-Awlaki earlier this week.

But the timing of killing al-Awlaki seems to be in the interest of the President Saleh.

The Americans at least would have spent few years not only few months to kill their number one enemy after Bin Laden.

Al-Awlaki was blamed for three terrorist attacks at least on US from Yemen over the last three years.

The Yemeni government provided all kind of cooperation since the more serious searching on al-Awlaki started immediately after Osama Bin Laden was killed early last May.

Al Qaeda expert Saeed Obaid said that al-Awlaki was the main recruiter from US and the west in general.

“If it’s proved that Anwar al-Awlaki is dead, then 2011 will be the year of victory over al-Qaeda for US,” Obaid said.

“It seems that the Yemeni political security (intelligence) played an essential role in the murder of al-Awlaki,” he said.

On Friday September 30, US Hellfire missiles killed Anwar Al-Awlaki and Sameer Khan and two other Yemenis in al-Khasef area between Mareb and al-Jawf.

The four men were in al-Awlaki’s four-wheel drive Hilux car according to locals who saw al-Awlaki and his comrades, days before the attack.

The locals said that al-Awlaki came to al-Jawf only 10 days ago and he was staying in three places only. The house of Salem Saleh Afrag, the local driver who was killed with him, was the first place. Al-Awlaki was killed immediately after he left this house. Khamis Afrag, brother of Salem, is a leading member in the Islamist opposition party, Islah.

The second place was the farm of local tribal leader Amin al-Okaimi in al-Jar area. Al-Okaimi is a Member of Parliament and chairman of the opposition Islamist party, Islah. Many al-Qaeda operatives including Egyptians, Algerians and Libyans are still hiding in the farm of al-Okaimi until now, said the local sources.

The Islamist tribal leader al-Okaimi and his tribesmen have been controlling the eastern province of al-Jawf since last March when the defected general Ali Muhsen encouraged them to dismiss the president Saleh’s loyalists and replace them.

The third place frequented by the slain Al-Awlaki in al-Jawf, was the farm of the Islamist leader Abdul Majid al-Zandani, wanted by UN and US as a global terrorist, in the area of Nebta in the same province of al-Jawf.

Al-Awlaki survived a number of assassination attempt since May. The last was in September 20th, when he and the AQAP second man the Saudi national survived a drone attack in al-Mahfad, in Abyan province.

Battles are still going on and off in Abyan, Ja’ar, Mudyah, Lawdar in the southern province of Abyan between the government forces supported by the American trained counter-terrorism forces and al-Qaeda operatives.

It would be in the interest of al-Qaeda if there is any kind of military interference from outside if all regional and international efforts failed to find a political solution. 
Source: Yemen Observer yobserver.com