Written By: Moustafa Bahran* for the Yemen Observer
The Arabic revolution has been labeled as “the facebook revolution”. Does that characterization fit the facts? Let us review the facebook statistics for the last six months for Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. Libya is excluded because it has not been a peaceful revolution. Syria is also excluded because statistics are not available and itsit’s not expected to be peaceful either.
As shown in the table below, today in Tunisia, one quarter of the population use facebook. 41% of them are females. Out of all facebook users in Tunisia, 67% are between the ages 18 to 34 and 11% between the ages 35-54. Today in Egypt, one tenth of the population use facebook. 37% of them are females. Out of all facebook users in Egypt, 68% are between the ages 18 to 34 while 12 percent between the ages 35 to 54. Today in Yemen, only 1.3% of the population use facebook. 23% of them are females. Out of all facebook user in Yemen 71% are between the ages 18 to 34 while only 8% between the ages 35 to 54.
For Tunisia, facebook usage has been steadily increasing starting at about 19% in the beginning of the year reaching relative stability of 25% around the middle of June and continues to be stable. In the case of Egypt, facebook usage jumped from about 5.8% of the population in the beginning of the year to 10.6% today and continues to grow.
In Yemen, at the beginning of the year there were about 200 thousand active users and by mid-April the number of users reached 360 thousand, but since then a significant decline has taken place. It is today around 300 thousand. That is to say between January and April some hundred and sixty thousand users were added but around 60 thousand of them stopped using facebook between the end of May and today. That could be due to electricity shortages, political frustration,-lack of commitment or both. The figure below shows Yemen’s facebook usage for the last three months (source: Socialbakers.com).
Now, what do these numbers tell us? The facebook statistics unambiguously tell us the following:
The more facebook usage, the higher the chance for the success of a peaceful revolution. Tunisia being the most successful revolution has today 25.24% while Egypt being the next successful revolution has 10.63%. On the other hand Yemen has only 1.3% and the revolution has not succeeded.
The more the female participation, the higher the chance for the success of a peaceful revolution. Tunisia being the most successful revolution has today a 41% female component of facbook users while Egypt being the next successful revolution has 37%. On the other hand Yemen has only 23% and the revolution has not succeeded. Although the female component in Yemen is smaller than that of Tunisia and Egypt, it is actually remarkably larger than one would expect for a total of 1.3% facebook users.
Although the driving force behind this revolution is the Arab youth, there is a statistically significant argument that the middle middle-aged component of the revolution is important as to increase the chance of a successful peaceful revolution. In both Tunisia and Egypt, the 18-34 age bracket constituted about two thirds of facebook users while in Yemen it is close to three quarters. On the other hand, the wiser group age 35-54 constitutes 11 to 12% in Tunisia and Egypt and only 8% in Yemen.
Facebook usage grew tremendously in all of the three countries parallel to revolutionary events reaching stability in Tunisia but continues to grow in Egypt, yet declining in Yemen. This reflects the facts on the ground in each country.
After the peak of facebook usage in Yemen at the end of May, much decline has taken place and continues to do so. A Apart from the electricity shortages factor, this is a significant indicator of a momentum being lost by the revolution mostly due to interference by bigger military-tribal-political powers.
Statistics don’t leilie. It is clear that based on facebook statistical grounds alone, the outcome in Yemen will not be similar to that of Tunisia and Egypt. Regime change by itself does not constitute a revolution because it can happen without changing the underline underlying social, cultural and political order. Revolution is a socio-political change by which a new social force dominates social order. The facebook youth in Tunisia and Egypt have been such a force. Although they did not assume power (they shouldn’t), their ideals are in power dictating events. In Yemen, the opposition in coalition with their military and tribal protégées have formed the so called “national counsel” which is more or less of the same type and of mentality as the regime itself. The difference is that instead of one man’s rule it will be at best a coalition rule of men of the same type and mentality. On the other hand the small (about 1% of the population) and rather beautiful, free, civil and democratic youth movement is Yemen’s best hope for a decent future. Therefore, once the current dilemma is over, supporting this movement in the days to come is detrimental if we strive for a modern, civil, democratic and free state.
country Usage as a percentage of population Percentage of female usage of all users Percentage of age group
54-35 out of all users Percentage of age group
18-34 out of all users
Tunisia 25.24 % 41 % 11 % 67 %
Egypt 10.36 % 37 % 12 % 68 %
Yemen 1.30 % 23 % 8% 71 %
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